Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Q3 2025 revenue rose 31.2% year over year to $44.4M, while Adjusted EBITDA increased 28.6% to $26.7M at a 60.2% margin; GAAP net income declined 4.8% to $11.5M due to $5.0M IPO-related expenses, compressing net income margin to 25.9% .
• Distribution delivered record new business sales (≈80% voluntary), retention remained strong (policy 86.7%, premium 98.0%), and written premium grew 30.7% to $101.6M, underscoring durable demand and pricing power .
• Management initiated FY 2026 guidance: revenue $186–$189M and Adjusted EBITDA margin 60–61%; debt was refinanced into a $260M revolver on Nov 10, 2025 ($251M drawn), lowering rate, eliminating amortization, and enhancing flexibility .
• Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q3 2025 was unavailable; comparisons to estimates cannot be shown. We attempted to retrieve consensus via S&P Global but no data was returned.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Strong top-line and non-GAAP profitability: revenue +31.2% to $44.4M; Adjusted EBITDA +28.6% to $26.7M with a 60.2% margin, reflecting scalable, asset-light MGA economics .
• Record new business and robust retention: ~80% of Q3 sales were non-mandatory; policy retention 86.7% and premium retention 98.0% (three months), supporting recurring commissions and fee income .
• Technology leverage and capacity expansion: full rewrite/upgrades to Triton underwriting system and deployment of ML conversion model; panel expanded from 33 to 39 capacity providers across seven programs post quarter, increasing diversification and growth runway .
• CEO quote: “The excellent results delivered in Q3 showcase the scalability and efficiency of our model... a 26% net income margin and a 60% Adjusted EBITDA margin. Operating as an MGA that takes no balance sheet insurance risk... allows us to deliver these margins” .

What Went Wrong

• GAAP net income declined 4.8% YoY to $11.5M as $5.0M IPO costs were expensed in Q3; net income margin fell 9.9 pp to 25.9% .
• Interest expense rose 46.3% YoY to $5.5M in Q3 due to higher average debt balances pre-refinancing; diluted EPS was flat at $0.06 despite revenue growth .
• Consensus estimates unavailable via S&P Global, limiting external benchmarking; prior-quarter (Q2, Q1 2025) company earnings documents were not found in the corpus for sequential trend tables. We searched 8‑K/press releases/transcripts but found none between Apr–Aug 2025.

Financial Results

Notes:

• Estimates column omitted; S&P Global consensus unavailable for Q3 2025 (we attempted retrieval and no data was returned).
• Prior-quarter data not available in the document corpus; sequential comparisons not shown.

Segment breakdown: Neptune reports one operating segment (MGA), so no segment table is applicable .

KPIs

Balance sheet/liquidity highlights (context for PMs):

• Total debt $264.0M at Sep 30, 2025; revolver executed Nov 10, 2025 at $260.0M with $251.0M outstanding, improving rate and eliminating amortization .
• Operating cash flow (9M) $38.9M; cash and fiduciary cash combined $59.0M at Sep 30, 2025 .

Guidance Changes

No explicit guidance provided for OpEx, OI&E, or tax rate beyond reported effective rates.

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Prior-quarter documents were not found in the corpus; trends reflect Q3 disclosures and context.

Management Commentary

• “Expanding distribution, record new business policy sales, strong renewal dynamics, and continued technology leverage helped produce 31% revenue growth, a 26% net income margin, and a 60% Adjusted EBITDA margin” — Trevor Burgess, CEO .
• “Operating as a managing general agent (MGA) that takes no balance sheet insurance risk... allows us to deliver these margins and provide a financial profile that is efficient, asset light, and profitable” — Trevor Burgess .
• “Following quarter end, we refinanced our debt into a $260 million revolving facility, which lowers our rate, removes required amortization, and provides greater flexibility to manage capital efficiently” — Trevor Burgess .

Q&A Highlights

• The company scheduled a Q3 2025 earnings call at 5:00 PM ET on Nov 12, 2025; dial-ins provided and webcast available on the IR site .
• A full call transcript was not available in the corpus; thus, Q&A themes and any guidance clarifications cannot be summarized.

Estimates Context

• S&P Global consensus estimates for Q3 2025 (EPS, revenue, EBITDA) were unavailable; we attempted retrieval via S&P Global but no data was returned. As a result, “vs estimates” comparisons are not presented.

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Business quality: Asset-light MGA model continues to convert premium growth into high margins; Adjusted EBITDA margin ~60% confirms operating leverage .
• Demand durability: Record voluntary new business (~80% non-mandatory) and strong retention (policy 86.7%, premium 98.0%) underpin recurring commission and fee revenue .
• Growth capacity: Post-quarter expansion to 39 capacity providers and seven programs supports continued policy issuance and premium scaling .
• Technology differentiator: Triton upgrade and ML conversion initiatives should sustain efficiency and sales conversion, reinforcing margin profile .
• Transient GAAP headwinds: IPO costs ($5.0M in Q3; $8.4M YTD) depressed GAAP net income; these were reimbursed by selling shareholders post-close in Q4 .
• Balance sheet flexibility: Revolver refinancing to $260M (with $251M drawn) lowers rate, eliminates amortization, and improves capital deployment options .
• Guidance signal: Initiation of FY 2026 revenue ($186–$189M) and Adjusted EBITDA margin (60–61%) frames medium-term growth/margin expectations; watch for execution against distribution and capacity scaling .

Sources: SEC 8‑K and Exhibit 99.1 press release (Nov 12, 2025) ; Q3 2025 Form 10‑Q (filed Nov 12, 2025) ; Pre‑announcement press release (Nov 4, 2025) .